Grace by a mile
SENATOR Grace Poe posted a wide lead over other possible presidential candidates in the 2016 elections, results of the second The Standard Poll showed.
The survey, conducted by resident pollster Junie Laylo from Sept. 21 to Oct. 1, had 1,500 respondents, all of whom are registered voters with biometrics from 76 provinces across the country and the 17 cities in the National Capital Region.
Respondents were asked to choose from eight possible candidates—Poe, Liberal Party standard bearer Manuel Roxas II, Vice President Jejomar Binay, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada, Senators Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Miriam Santiago, and former senator Richard Gordon.
Duterte, Estrada, Marcos, Santiago and Gordon were included in the list because they had not declared their final decision on their 2016 plans during the survey period.
Poe, with a plurality of 32 percent, led the survey across all geographic areas where her ratings ranged from 28 to 35 percent.
Roxas placed second at 19 percent, followed by Binay (14 percent), Duterte (10 percent), Estrada (9 percent), Marcos (7 percent), Santiago (6 percent), and Gordon (1 percent).
Poe also led across all economic classes, genders, and age groups, with ratings ranging from 28 to 32 percent.
By ethnicity, Poe was the top choice among the Tagalogs (29 percent), Cebuanos (35 percent), Ilonggos (36 percent), Ilocanos (30 percent), Bicolanos (40 percent), and Muslim groups (27 percent).
It was only among the Warays that Poe placed second with 19 percent, with Binay taking the lead at 42 percent.
The survey also showed that Poe was the most trusted among the possible presidential bets with a net trust rating of +66, followed by Roxas (+39), Santiago (+38), Duterte (+25), Estrada (+20), Binay (+18), and Gordon (+1).
Respondents were also asked who they would vote for if their candidate of choice backs out from the presidential race. Most respondents who did not pick Poe as their first choice said they would vote for Poe, given that scenario.
In a four-way fight among Poe, Roxas, Binay and Duterte, Poe would even increase her lead to 41 percent, while Binay and Roxas would be tied for second place with 23 percent and 22 percent, respectively.
In a four-way contest, Duterte would be in third place with 13 percent, despite his statements during the survey period that he would not be running for President.
In the first The Standard Poll in May, Poe was at second place, trailing four points behind Binay who got 28 percent.
The Standard Poll has error margins of +/- 2.6 percent for the national results and +/- 6 percent for the regional results. All regions were represented in the survey.
Laylo, The Standard’s in-house pollster, has 25 years of experience in political polling and strategic research.